The third month of a paid programme tells you everything
Month one is setup. Month two is luck. Month three is the first read you can actually trust.
Everyone wants to judge a paid account in week two. It’s the worst possible time to judge it.
Why the first two months lie
Month one is structural: account restructure, tracking fixes, creative in flight. Month two often catches a tailwind or a headwind that has nothing to do with the work. Month three is the first clean read, when the changes have had time to settle and the noise has averaged out.
What we look for
Contribution, not ROAS in isolation. Whether the incremental spend is buying incremental customers or just re-buying ones you’d have got anyway. And whether the account can scale without the efficiency collapsing.
Starts with the market. Start with the market. Where does the brand need to show up, and why would anyone care once it does?